Saturday, February 22, 2014

Jokowi dips in popularity, Prabowo on the rise: Poll

A new public opinion poll has found that Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s electability rating is sliding while that of his strongest rival, Gerindra Party chief patron Prabowo Subianto, is on the up.

The latest survey conducted by the United Data Center (PDB) said Jokowi’s electability rating for the 2014 presidential election was 31.8 percent, Prabowo’s was 12.8 percent.

Although Jokowi remains on top of the polls, his electability rating decreased by 4.2 percent from 36 percent since the survey was first conducted in October, 2013.

Prabowo’s electability rating, on the other hand, has increased by 6.2 percent from 6.6 percent.

For its latest survey, the PDB interviewed 1,200 respondents by phone between Feb. 7 and 10 in 15 large cities in Indonesia: Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Medan, Palembang, Balikpapan, Banjarmasin, Mataram, Kupang, Makassar, Ambon and Jayapura.

The survey, however, only asked for a straight-forward preference without requesting them to elaborate on their preferences.

“The survey we conducted did not include why the candidate was deemed electable or not,” PDB researcher, Agus Herta Sumarto told a press briefing Friday.

PDB cofounder Peter F. Gontha said that Jokowi and Prabowo had benefitted from heavy media coverage.

“Jokowi is the media darling. The press write about him every day, whereas Prabowo is putting a lot of money and effort into television exposure,” he said.

The survey found that State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan came in third place with an electability rate of 5.8 percent.

Hanura Party chairman Wiranto came in fourth with 5.6 percent.

The survey also found that 27 percent of respondents were still undecided.

“We should pay close attention to this 27 percent. They will be our swing voters in the upcoming elections and ultimately decide the results,” Peter added.

The survey, conducted between Feb. 7 and Feb. 10, mostly targeted middle- to upper-class respondents
because people from the low-income bracket had no access to land-line telephones, Agus said.

The PDB will conduct their next survey in March, this one will include people from the lower classes to gleam a more accurate interpretation of who might win the 2014 presidential election in July.

Responding to the survey’s findings NasDem party executive, Ferry Mursyidan Baldan, said that it was not a true representation of the current political condition.

“I think it is important to analyze what parties respondents would choose and then who they would vote for in the presidential election. If we can do that, we can see whether or not their choices are consistent,” he said.

A public opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in December found that Jokowi would get 34.7 percent of votes if the presidential election were to take place then.

In the survey, Prabowo came in second position (10.7 percent) and Aburizal Bakrie in third (9 percent),

More than 22 percent of respondents said they were undecided. (fss)

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